Open Seat Governors Races.
1) Alabama(Bob Riley-R is term limited). (Tossup)
Democratic Candidates- Jim Folsom(Lt Governor/Former Governor)
Ron Sparks(State Agriculture Commissioner)
Arthur Davis(US Congressman AL-7CD)
Republican Candidates- Beth Champman(Secretary of State)
Kay Ivey(State Treasurer)
Troy King(State Attorney General)
Jo Bonner(US Congressman AL-1CD)
2)California(Arnold Schwarzenneger-R is term limited) Likely Democratic Takeover.
Democratic Candidates- Jerry Brown(Attorney General/Former Governor)
John Garamendi(Lt Governor/Former Insurance Commissioner)
Bill Lockyer(Treasurer/Former Attorney General)
Steve Westly(Former Controller)
Gavin Newsom(San Francisco Mayor)
Antonio Villagrosa (Los Angeles Mayor)
Republican Candidates- Steve Poizner(State Insurance Commissioner)
Tom Campbell(Former US Congressman CA-15CD)
3)Georgia(Sonny Perdue-R is term limited)- Lean Republican Retention.
Democratic Candidates- Thubert Baker(Attorney General)
Mike Thurmond(State Labor Commissioner)
Roy Barnes(Former Governor)
Republican Candidates- Casey Cagle(Lt Governor)
Karen Handel(Secretary of State)
John Oxedine (State Insurance Commisioner)
Lynn Westmoreland(US Congressman GA-3CD)
4)Hawaii(Linda Lingle-R is term limited)- Likely Democratic Takeover)
Democratic Candidates- Mazie Horino(US Congresswoman HI-2CD/Former LT Governor)
Ed Case(Former US Congressman HI-2CD)
Colleen Hanabusa(State Senate President)
Mufi Hannemann(Mayor of Honolulu)
Republican Candidate- Duke Aiona-(Lt Governor)
5)Kansas(Kathleen Sebelius-D is term limited)- Likely Republican Takeover)
Democratic Candidates- John Moore(Former Lt Governor)
Republican Candidates- Sam Brownback(US Senator)
Ron Thornburgh(Secretary of State)
6)Maine(John Baldacci-D is term limited)- Likely Democratic Retention.
Democratic Candidates- Mike Michaud(US Congressman ME-2CD)
Republican Candidates- Too be listed.
7)Michigan(Jennifer Granholm-D is term limited)-Tossup.
Democratic Candidates- John Cherry(Lt Governor)
Bart Stupak(US Congressman MI-1CD)
Don Williamson (Flint Mayor)
Republican Candidates- Mike Cox(Attorney General)
Candace Miller(US Congresswon MI-10CD/ex Secretary of State)
Peter Hoeksta(US Congressman MI-2CD)
Terry Lynn Land(Secretary of State)
8)Oklahoma(Brad Henry-D is term limited)-Tossup.
Democratic Candidates- Jari Haskins(Lt Governor)
Drew Edmondson(Attorney General)
Republican Candidates- John Sullivan(US Congressman-OK-1CD)
Tom Cole(US Congressman OK-4CD)
Mary Fallin(US Congresswoman OK-5CD/ex Lt Governor)
9)Oregon(Ted Kulongoski-D is term limited)- Likely Democratic Retention.
Democratic Candidates- John Kitzhaber-(Former Governor)
Randall Edwards(ex Treasurer)
Earl Blumenaur(US Congressman OR-3CD)
Pete DeFazio(US Congressman OR-4CD)
Republican Candidates- Gordon Smith(ex US Senator)
Greg Walden(US Congressman OR-2CD)
10)Pennsylvania (Ed Rendell-D is term limited)- Tossup
Democratic Candidates- Dan Onorato (Allegheny County Executive)
Jack Wagner(State Auditor)
Republican Candidates- Tom Corbett(State Attorney General)
Jim Gerlach(US Congressman PA-6CD)
11)Rhode Island(Don Carcieri-R is term limited)-Likely Democratic Takeover.
Democratic Candidates- Elizabeth Roberts(Lt Governor)
Patrick Lynch(Attorney General)
David Ciccilline(Providence Mayor)
Republican Candidates- TBD
12)South Carolina(Mark Sanford-R is term limited)-Likely Republican Retention.
Democratic Candidates- Joe Erwin(ex State Democratic Chair)
Jim Hodges(ex Governor)
Republican Candidates- Andre Bauer(Lt Governor)
Henry McMaster(Attorney General)
13)South Dakota(Mike Rounds-R is term limited)-Tossup if Sandlin runs/Likely Republican Retention.
Democratic Candidate- Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin(US Congresswoman-SD-ALCD)
Republican Candidate- Dennis Daugard(Lt Governor)
14)Tennessee-(Phil Bredensen-D is term limited)-Tossup
Democratic Candidates- Lincoln Davis(US Congressman TN-4CD)
Harold Ford Jr(Ex US Congressman TN-9CD)
Republican Candidates- Bill Frist(ex US Senator)
Marsha Blackburn(US Congresswoman TN-7CD)
Zack Wamp (US Congressman TN-3CD)
15)Virginia-(Tim Kaine-D is term limited)- Tossup
Democratic Candidates- Brian Moran(State Delegate)
Creigh Deeds(Ex State Senator)
Terry McCaullife(Ex DNC Chair)
Republican Candidate- Bob McDonell(Attorney General)
16)Wyoming-(Dave Freudenthal-D is term limited) Likely Republican Takeover)
In 2009/2010
Democrats will retain Governorships in
1)Arkansas
2)Colorado
3)Illinios
4)Iowa
5)Maine
6)Maryland
7)Massachusetts
8)New Hampshire
9)New Jersey
10)New Mexico
11)New York
12)Ohio
13)Oregon
14)Wisconsin
Republicans will retain Governorship
1)Alaska
2)Connecticut
3)Florida
4)Georgia
5)Idaho
6)Nebraska
7)South Carolina
8)South Dakota
9)Texas
10)Vermont
Democratic Pickup
1)California
2)Hawaii
3) Nevada
4)Rhode Island
Republican Pickup
1)Kansas
2)Wyoming
Tossup
1)Alabama
2)Arizona
3)Michigan
4)Minnesota
5)Pennsylvania
6)Tennessee
7)Virginia
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I agree with most of your predictions, but there are some I'd like to comment on.
ReplyDelete1. New Jersey: I'd list that one as a Tossup. US Attorney Chris Christie is a strong candidate in himself, and not too many people like Governor Corzine at the moment. Plus, New Jerseyans are open to supporting GOP'ers in Statewide races.
2. South Dakota: There is some speculation that Daugaard might not be the nominee. He is currently facing State Senate Majority Leader Dave Knudson, Brookings Mayor Scott Munsterman, and Rancher Ken Knuppe in the GOP Primary. If somebody in the GOP Primary were to knock down Daugaard, I'd say Knudson would be the guy to do it. However, I agree on the rating if SHS runs, but if she doesn't, then I'd rate SD-GOV as safe Republican as after SHS, there is no other formidable Democrat in SD that could make a race out of this.
3. South Carolina: You may have left out three potential candidates for the SC-GOV GOP Primary. Those three are Congressman J. Gresham Barrett, Attorney and Gubernatorial Son Carroll "Tumpy"(epic nickname) Campbell, and State Senator Tom Davis(rumored "Sanford Candidate")(No relation to former VA Congressman Tom Davis III).
4. Hawaii: If I were you, I wouldn't count your chickens before they hatch. While a Democratic victory is probable, I wouldn't count out Republican Lt. Gov. James "Duke" Aiona as a winning candidate here. He's a strong candidate in himself and is a statewide officer, unlike the prospective Democrats here, so I wouldn't count him out.
5. Kansas: Besides Moore, there are other formidable Democrats here that could win. The Democrats have Treasurer Dennis McKinney, Attorney General Stephen Six, and former Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman. I'd say this is Leans GOP if any of them run.
6. Alabama: This one is Leans GOP. Alabama is a heavily Republican state that Re-elected Gov. Riley with 58% and voted for McCain with 60%. Somebody like Jack Hawkins, Mike Hubbard, or Troy King could run and keep this for the GOP.
7. Arizona: This one is Leans Dem if either Terry Goddard, Gabrielle Giffords, or Phil Gordon run. Brewer has been in office for three months and has just overhauled Education. She will lose big if either of these guys runs.
8. Michigan: This one is Leans GOP. While not a GOP State, this has to be a takeover because the Granholm Administration has screwed Michigan financially. John Cherry(nice last name, though) would be seen as a repeat of the past 8 years and would probably lose the seat for the Dem's if he got nominated. A guy like Mike Bouchard could take this from the Dem's if he ran.
9. Minnesota: This has to be Leans GOP. Tim Pawlenty has been a relatively popular Governor and Mark Dayton isn't the strongest candidate in the crop. Expect Pawlenty to win again.
10. Tennessee: This one is Likely GOP. Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam and Congressman Zach Wamp are strong candidates in themselves, and not too many Democrats are popular here(except Bredesen and maybe Congressman Lincoln Davis). Kim McMillan has been largely overestimated and will likely lose by double digits.
These are just my opinions. You don't have to agree.